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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Dec 11 2019 5:13 am


 

Day 1

D4Saturday Dec 14 2019 - Sunday Dec 15 2019 D7Tuesday Dec 17 2019 - Wednesday Dec 18 2019
D5Sunday Dec 15 2019 - Monday Dec 16 2019 D8Wednesday Dec 18 2019 - Thursday Dec 19 2019
D6Monday Dec 16 2019 - Tuesday Dec 17 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        
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Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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